"When people consult me, it's not that I'm reading the future; I am guessing at the future. The future belongs to God, and it is only he who reveals it, under extraordinary circumstances. How do I guess at the future? Based on the omens of the present. The secret is here in the present. If you pay attention to the present, you can improve upon it. And, if you improve on the present, what comes later will also be better. Forget about the future, and live each day according to the teachings, confident that God loves his children. Each day, in itself, brings with it an eternity." -- page 103.
"Isn't wine prohibited here?" the boy asked. It's not what enters men's mouths that's evil," said the alchemist. "It's what comes out of their mouths that is." -- page 115.
Above are just a couple of the great passages from Paulo Coelho's The Alchemist. It is a wonderful story about life, offering inspiration to those seeking higher meaning, everlasting love, a true calling, or a way to navigate tough times. At just about 160 pages, it is an engaging and fast read. I read it in less than 2 hours (on the train to BWI, finishing it before landing at LIT).
Pick it up at B&N or Amazon.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Hope
I hope everyone's prayers and wishes of hope will come true. Indeed Barack Obama has been elected as the 44th president, and I congratulate him. But can the president-elect live up to his hype?
Only time will tell.
Only time will tell.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Higher taxes on those making $150k or more...you'll be next!
You decide:
Or:
Now Obama and Biden want to tax those who make more than $150,000 per year? Last week it was $250,000. Next week it will be $100,000 or less. Can you afford Obama's tax hikes? Can we all afford the inevitable downside to tax increases in a recession?
This looks easy to me. Vote John McCain on November 4th.
Or:
Now Obama and Biden want to tax those who make more than $150,000 per year? Last week it was $250,000. Next week it will be $100,000 or less. Can you afford Obama's tax hikes? Can we all afford the inevitable downside to tax increases in a recession?
This looks easy to me. Vote John McCain on November 4th.
Vote for McCain
Economy, environment, and health care. These are, and rightfully should be, the most important issues of this election. And on each of these issues, John McCain offers the best policies for all Americans.
First, the economy. Admittedly, McCain has not been as forthcoming or effective in responding to this economic crisis. However, over the past few weeks, he has refined his campaign and come back to his roots as a maverick. McCain wants to keep your taxes low and make it easier for businesses to invest right here in the U.S. We all know that businesses often hire lawyers and accountants to help them avoid paying as much tax as possible. If we could do it too we would. So how do we reduce this? Let's cut the corporate tax rate to spur business investment in new products and technologies, but also employees, including blue collar workers facing massive job cuts and lower wages. We could (and likely will) see jobs coming back to the U.S. Let's also cut taxes on individuals so that you can do more with what you earn. In doing so, let's get government off your back. You understand what challenges you face, yet you are always conscious of those in need. By putting you back in charge of your money and your government, John McCain will inspire you to achieve your goals and dreams.
Second, John McCain will make significant changes to the U.S. environmental policy. He will offer incentives to invest in wind, solar, nuclear, and other clean energy, as well as drill for oil and natural gas. McCain plans to begin a cap and trade system to force companies to dramatically reduce their carbon and other emissions. McCain introduced one of the first bills in the Senate to change environmental policy years ago. He has been at the forefront, offering policies that improve the environment without destroying businesses and the economy.
Third, McCain will improve the current health care system by removing the need for single employer-based coverage. Under McCain's plan, you will be able to purchase an affordable, portable health care plan. You can keep your employer coverage. Or you can buy a different policy on your own. Either way, you will likely find coverage for less money, after a tax rebate. Some say the average family would save $1200 per year. (Just to clarify, yes, you will have to pay income taxes on health care coverage; however, the average family, earning well under $100 thousand per year and receiving coverage of $12,000 would pay no more than $3,000 in new taxes. That new tax burden would be offset by a flat $5,000 credit, thereby netting a $2,000 tax credit. Your tax liability FALLS under the McCain plan and you get more health care choice.)
Maybe I'm naïve, but don't you think you can better handle your money? Besides, we can't trust anyone in Washington (Democrats, Republicans, or Independents), never mind trusting them with more of our money.
Stand up! Vote for John McCain on November 4th!
(And just because I like the sound of it, NOBAMA!)
First, the economy. Admittedly, McCain has not been as forthcoming or effective in responding to this economic crisis. However, over the past few weeks, he has refined his campaign and come back to his roots as a maverick. McCain wants to keep your taxes low and make it easier for businesses to invest right here in the U.S. We all know that businesses often hire lawyers and accountants to help them avoid paying as much tax as possible. If we could do it too we would. So how do we reduce this? Let's cut the corporate tax rate to spur business investment in new products and technologies, but also employees, including blue collar workers facing massive job cuts and lower wages. We could (and likely will) see jobs coming back to the U.S. Let's also cut taxes on individuals so that you can do more with what you earn. In doing so, let's get government off your back. You understand what challenges you face, yet you are always conscious of those in need. By putting you back in charge of your money and your government, John McCain will inspire you to achieve your goals and dreams.
Second, John McCain will make significant changes to the U.S. environmental policy. He will offer incentives to invest in wind, solar, nuclear, and other clean energy, as well as drill for oil and natural gas. McCain plans to begin a cap and trade system to force companies to dramatically reduce their carbon and other emissions. McCain introduced one of the first bills in the Senate to change environmental policy years ago. He has been at the forefront, offering policies that improve the environment without destroying businesses and the economy.
Third, McCain will improve the current health care system by removing the need for single employer-based coverage. Under McCain's plan, you will be able to purchase an affordable, portable health care plan. You can keep your employer coverage. Or you can buy a different policy on your own. Either way, you will likely find coverage for less money, after a tax rebate. Some say the average family would save $1200 per year. (Just to clarify, yes, you will have to pay income taxes on health care coverage; however, the average family, earning well under $100 thousand per year and receiving coverage of $12,000 would pay no more than $3,000 in new taxes. That new tax burden would be offset by a flat $5,000 credit, thereby netting a $2,000 tax credit. Your tax liability FALLS under the McCain plan and you get more health care choice.)
Maybe I'm naïve, but don't you think you can better handle your money? Besides, we can't trust anyone in Washington (Democrats, Republicans, or Independents), never mind trusting them with more of our money.
Stand up! Vote for John McCain on November 4th!
(And just because I like the sound of it, NOBAMA!)
Sunday, October 12, 2008
The economy and the campaign
So, maybe I wrote in this blog that inflation was the next big thing for the economy. I thought we could maintain some confidence in our semi-regulated capitalism. And, I thought this would be a different campaign. Boy was I wrong.
First, inflation did start to rear its ugly head especially when oil climbed to over $140 per barrel. Food prices rose and companies hiked fuel surcharges, so people began cutting back. We're now seeing people drive less often and spend less when they do go out. So inflation is in check. Now there's concern about deflation as consumer spending has slipped and confidence continues to fall. We're in a recession. Alone, that would not be a problem -- we could recover pretty easily over just a short period of time. However, higher oil prices in July and further investigation into the credit derivatives and other crazy financial product innovations has resulted in consumers tightening their belts and banks and investment firms doing the same.
That brings me to the lack of confidence in the economy. Really, it doesn't make sense for people to be so scared that the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 5,800 points from its all-time high hit last year. That's a loss of 41%. Of course, some hesitation is to be expected. More information or more clarity is needed.
Now, I think part of this has to do with some confusing accounting rules imposed over the past year. Under the old rules, a business would account for assets by reporting the cost of purchase (so called historical cost accounting). The new rules have just begun to require banks and other financial businesses to 'mark-to-market' or report the value of assets at the current market value. As a result of government intervention and new found wealth in the Middle East, China, and Eastern Europe, the U.S. market (including banks, investment firms, and mortgage brokers) created innovative products and/or ignored tradition to satiate the desires of overseas investors. Banks and others grouped mortgages together creating something similar to a mutual fund, selling shares. Further, the U.S. and European firms (like AIG and UBS) began offering insurance (or heavily marketing an older, little-used product) on those mortgage pools and corporate bonds and other debt. No one knows exactly what the U.S. and European firms sold and the investors don't know what they bought. With the new accounting rules, the market is struggling to properly price the assets. Besides not knowing what is actually in the pools, Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and other agencies initially identified many of the newly created assets (pools of assets) as investment grade, meaning they were pretty safe bets. Now, the agency ratings have been called into question and the market has largely discounted them.
To review: we've got a demand for new, higher risk-reward products; we've got banks and others willing to supply the demand; and now there have been accounting rule changes leaving questions about proper asset valuation. So the problem we're encountering now is a result of banks and others writing sales contract so that they keep some of the risk (and therefore some more of the reward). The market realized assets were not properly valued, so banks and others began writing down the value of the assets, taking a direct hit in their profitability. This is a double whammy -- investors now don't like the new, innovative assets and investors don't like lower profits and cuts in stock dividends. For some time (most of 2008), the market has held fairly steady, thinking that many banks either had exposure and quickly identified the problems and corrected them, or those that hadn't were not at risk. This was despite the March failure of Bear Stearns, quite the venerable Wall Street investment firm. JPMorgan Chase stepped in and bought Bear Stearns with the help of the Federal Reserve. Credit markets, in which bonds, insurance, lending, and other products are traded, began to seize up. Credit market participants became extremely weary of future losses and failures. However, they were assuaged for a while as there were no other big failures (though Bank of America stepped in and saved Countrywide, one of the leading mortgage lenders). Everything changed when IndyMac (another very large mortgage lender) began showing signs of tremendous stress in June and at the end of the month, Senator Charles Schumer publicly released a letter condemning IndyMac to imminent failure. Before the letter was released, depositors began withdrawing money from their accounts, but only after the letter hit the press did more than $1.3 billion leave the bank. This was a big blow to confidence in the financial system. The Federal Reserve and other central banks introduced additional measures to offer liquidity and confidence. The third straw came with the Federal Government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the former Government Sponsored Entities were given preferential treatment in offering traditional mortgages at lower interest rates despite being privately owned). The final straw the broke the camel's back was the failure of Lehman Brothers, a troubled investment firm like Bear Stearns. Then the government offered significant support for American International Group (AIG).
Another review: We've got questionably valued assets on the books of banks and others; several banks and investment firms have failed; an insurance giant is receiving about $100 billion in U.S. support; and despite Federal Reserve and other government actions, there is no confidence so no one is lending to anyone. The result? How about a $700 billion restoration plan (commonly mislabled as a bailout even though the U.S. will receive an equity stake for every investment, just like any other investor). Now, on the surface this money would seem to be enough to jump start seized credit markets. But there is still no confidence. The giant stock market losses do not help the consumer perception of economic 'armegeddon' as some prognosticator mentioned. Even now, after Congress passed the $700 billion bill, no one knows exactly what to do.
What's the result? The Presidential campaigns have had to focus on the economy. It has been especially difficult for John McCain -- he has admitted having some difficulties with economic policies. And the rhetoric offered on the trail and during debates has not been all that insightful. In fact, it really does sound like the economic policies of George W. Bush. Now, Bush's policies are not really bad -- it's just their execution. How do you, as a Republican who ran against government spending, create the largest federal government in U.S. history? How do you take a budget surplus and turn it to a huge deficit? McCain would like to keep taxes low and cut spending. But that isn't enough. The American public wants to hear specific plans to get us out of this current crisis. They want specifics on how to bring more investment to the U.S., and therefore, create jobs. Further, they want to know how we can prevent this in the future. It seems as if Barack Obama has stepped up to the plate. He offers some specifics, including letting the tax cut on the highest earners expire and using that money to cut taxes on 'middle-income' families. (Maybe at some point, in another post, I'll try to figure out who are 'middle-income' families.) And Obama offers specifics about increasing regulations and not allowing banks and others to get away with these shennanigans ever again. But Obama's plans are all wrong. It is because of crazy half-assed regulations that we got into this mortgage mess. It is because we have such idiotic tax laws that allow the rich to get away with not paying taxes. So McCain's ideas are correct, but he hasn't figured out how to effectively attack Obama and Congress so as to further his cause. No matter who gets elected, though, the first two or more years will be tied directly to the economic recovery. And the policies directing the recovery have been set over the past few weeks. We really need a shake-up in Congress. We need term limits and four-year terms for Representatives. This will remove the constant campaigning culture and special interests. Maybe Congress would see new faces, new ideas, and a return to doing the work of their constituents. I don't see how John McCain can win this election, a disappointing prospect. But then again is the fact that we're not likely to see much change in Congess either.
Maybe with an all-Democratic government we can get full DC voting rights and representation?
I'm keeping some faith -- at some point my generation will seek elective office and will take over at the head of major companies. We'll make some changes because we know the mess we've been left with. We know the good and bad of this era. We'll bring the change we need soon enough.
First, inflation did start to rear its ugly head especially when oil climbed to over $140 per barrel. Food prices rose and companies hiked fuel surcharges, so people began cutting back. We're now seeing people drive less often and spend less when they do go out. So inflation is in check. Now there's concern about deflation as consumer spending has slipped and confidence continues to fall. We're in a recession. Alone, that would not be a problem -- we could recover pretty easily over just a short period of time. However, higher oil prices in July and further investigation into the credit derivatives and other crazy financial product innovations has resulted in consumers tightening their belts and banks and investment firms doing the same.
That brings me to the lack of confidence in the economy. Really, it doesn't make sense for people to be so scared that the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 5,800 points from its all-time high hit last year. That's a loss of 41%. Of course, some hesitation is to be expected. More information or more clarity is needed.
Now, I think part of this has to do with some confusing accounting rules imposed over the past year. Under the old rules, a business would account for assets by reporting the cost of purchase (so called historical cost accounting). The new rules have just begun to require banks and other financial businesses to 'mark-to-market' or report the value of assets at the current market value. As a result of government intervention and new found wealth in the Middle East, China, and Eastern Europe, the U.S. market (including banks, investment firms, and mortgage brokers) created innovative products and/or ignored tradition to satiate the desires of overseas investors. Banks and others grouped mortgages together creating something similar to a mutual fund, selling shares. Further, the U.S. and European firms (like AIG and UBS) began offering insurance (or heavily marketing an older, little-used product) on those mortgage pools and corporate bonds and other debt. No one knows exactly what the U.S. and European firms sold and the investors don't know what they bought. With the new accounting rules, the market is struggling to properly price the assets. Besides not knowing what is actually in the pools, Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and other agencies initially identified many of the newly created assets (pools of assets) as investment grade, meaning they were pretty safe bets. Now, the agency ratings have been called into question and the market has largely discounted them.
To review: we've got a demand for new, higher risk-reward products; we've got banks and others willing to supply the demand; and now there have been accounting rule changes leaving questions about proper asset valuation. So the problem we're encountering now is a result of banks and others writing sales contract so that they keep some of the risk (and therefore some more of the reward). The market realized assets were not properly valued, so banks and others began writing down the value of the assets, taking a direct hit in their profitability. This is a double whammy -- investors now don't like the new, innovative assets and investors don't like lower profits and cuts in stock dividends. For some time (most of 2008), the market has held fairly steady, thinking that many banks either had exposure and quickly identified the problems and corrected them, or those that hadn't were not at risk. This was despite the March failure of Bear Stearns, quite the venerable Wall Street investment firm. JPMorgan Chase stepped in and bought Bear Stearns with the help of the Federal Reserve. Credit markets, in which bonds, insurance, lending, and other products are traded, began to seize up. Credit market participants became extremely weary of future losses and failures. However, they were assuaged for a while as there were no other big failures (though Bank of America stepped in and saved Countrywide, one of the leading mortgage lenders). Everything changed when IndyMac (another very large mortgage lender) began showing signs of tremendous stress in June and at the end of the month, Senator Charles Schumer publicly released a letter condemning IndyMac to imminent failure. Before the letter was released, depositors began withdrawing money from their accounts, but only after the letter hit the press did more than $1.3 billion leave the bank. This was a big blow to confidence in the financial system. The Federal Reserve and other central banks introduced additional measures to offer liquidity and confidence. The third straw came with the Federal Government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the former Government Sponsored Entities were given preferential treatment in offering traditional mortgages at lower interest rates despite being privately owned). The final straw the broke the camel's back was the failure of Lehman Brothers, a troubled investment firm like Bear Stearns. Then the government offered significant support for American International Group (AIG).
Another review: We've got questionably valued assets on the books of banks and others; several banks and investment firms have failed; an insurance giant is receiving about $100 billion in U.S. support; and despite Federal Reserve and other government actions, there is no confidence so no one is lending to anyone. The result? How about a $700 billion restoration plan (commonly mislabled as a bailout even though the U.S. will receive an equity stake for every investment, just like any other investor). Now, on the surface this money would seem to be enough to jump start seized credit markets. But there is still no confidence. The giant stock market losses do not help the consumer perception of economic 'armegeddon' as some prognosticator mentioned. Even now, after Congress passed the $700 billion bill, no one knows exactly what to do.
What's the result? The Presidential campaigns have had to focus on the economy. It has been especially difficult for John McCain -- he has admitted having some difficulties with economic policies. And the rhetoric offered on the trail and during debates has not been all that insightful. In fact, it really does sound like the economic policies of George W. Bush. Now, Bush's policies are not really bad -- it's just their execution. How do you, as a Republican who ran against government spending, create the largest federal government in U.S. history? How do you take a budget surplus and turn it to a huge deficit? McCain would like to keep taxes low and cut spending. But that isn't enough. The American public wants to hear specific plans to get us out of this current crisis. They want specifics on how to bring more investment to the U.S., and therefore, create jobs. Further, they want to know how we can prevent this in the future. It seems as if Barack Obama has stepped up to the plate. He offers some specifics, including letting the tax cut on the highest earners expire and using that money to cut taxes on 'middle-income' families. (Maybe at some point, in another post, I'll try to figure out who are 'middle-income' families.) And Obama offers specifics about increasing regulations and not allowing banks and others to get away with these shennanigans ever again. But Obama's plans are all wrong. It is because of crazy half-assed regulations that we got into this mortgage mess. It is because we have such idiotic tax laws that allow the rich to get away with not paying taxes. So McCain's ideas are correct, but he hasn't figured out how to effectively attack Obama and Congress so as to further his cause. No matter who gets elected, though, the first two or more years will be tied directly to the economic recovery. And the policies directing the recovery have been set over the past few weeks. We really need a shake-up in Congress. We need term limits and four-year terms for Representatives. This will remove the constant campaigning culture and special interests. Maybe Congress would see new faces, new ideas, and a return to doing the work of their constituents. I don't see how John McCain can win this election, a disappointing prospect. But then again is the fact that we're not likely to see much change in Congess either.
Maybe with an all-Democratic government we can get full DC voting rights and representation?
I'm keeping some faith -- at some point my generation will seek elective office and will take over at the head of major companies. We'll make some changes because we know the mess we've been left with. We know the good and bad of this era. We'll bring the change we need soon enough.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Crazy June
From DC to Middletown to JFK to Fort Lauderdale to Grand Cayman to Cozumel to Fort Lauderdale to JFK to Middletown to DC. Ah, the wonderful vacation that was May 31 to June 6. A great time was had by all, but the 5 night cruise was entirely not enough to satiate my vacation needs. But it will be at least several months before I can take anything more than a long weekend. Check out some of the pictures on Flickr and facebook.
But this is only half of it because, as my title says, June has been a crazy month. The Monday after I returned from vacation, I put in my two weeks notice at ICF. The four months or so I spent there has been sort of unfulfilling. But then again, I really only took the job because I needed to work, so I had no expectations upon entering. There were some good people there, I did some good stuff, and I learned a bunch. However, I quickly learned that the hour and fifteen minute commute (that dragged on for as long as two hours when the Orange line was delayed) was too much. I was willing to bite the bullet, and give ICF another chance, besides, I didn't have anywhere else to go. But then the FDIC sent me an e-mail and called for an interview. Of course, I jumped at the opportunity, and quickly learned I had been offered an Economic Assistant position. I thought about it for a bit, negotiated salary, and accepted the position. When I told my managers at ICF that I would be leaving, two of them were kind of angry and disappointed -- they didn't understand how I could make such a drastic decision with less than four months on the job at ICF, nor did they have much hope for my success at FDIC. Luckily, I didn't care what they thought and proceeded to finish my project work and transition out of the company.
And let me tell you, I couldn't be happier with my new position at FDIC. I just started on Monday and in one week I have three projects and have been published on the FDIC intranet. Damn it feels good. I just feel a better connection to the FDIC -- it is closer to home, I know most of the people with whom I will be working, I have friends there, and the project work seems to be more meaningful to my career. Oh, and I don't feel the pressure to be fully billable (a huge downside to consulting work, especially because it would take years to develop comraderie, by which time all of the RAs and Analysts will have moved on). I will say, I won't be solving the energy or environmental crises as I would at ICF (well, doing some analysis of potential resolutions, including expansion of nuclear power), however, the financial crisis and potential recession will offer plenty of opportunity to analyze the US economy and offer resolutions just the same.
I can't wait to see what July offers.
But this is only half of it because, as my title says, June has been a crazy month. The Monday after I returned from vacation, I put in my two weeks notice at ICF. The four months or so I spent there has been sort of unfulfilling. But then again, I really only took the job because I needed to work, so I had no expectations upon entering. There were some good people there, I did some good stuff, and I learned a bunch. However, I quickly learned that the hour and fifteen minute commute (that dragged on for as long as two hours when the Orange line was delayed) was too much. I was willing to bite the bullet, and give ICF another chance, besides, I didn't have anywhere else to go. But then the FDIC sent me an e-mail and called for an interview. Of course, I jumped at the opportunity, and quickly learned I had been offered an Economic Assistant position. I thought about it for a bit, negotiated salary, and accepted the position. When I told my managers at ICF that I would be leaving, two of them were kind of angry and disappointed -- they didn't understand how I could make such a drastic decision with less than four months on the job at ICF, nor did they have much hope for my success at FDIC. Luckily, I didn't care what they thought and proceeded to finish my project work and transition out of the company.
And let me tell you, I couldn't be happier with my new position at FDIC. I just started on Monday and in one week I have three projects and have been published on the FDIC intranet. Damn it feels good. I just feel a better connection to the FDIC -- it is closer to home, I know most of the people with whom I will be working, I have friends there, and the project work seems to be more meaningful to my career. Oh, and I don't feel the pressure to be fully billable (a huge downside to consulting work, especially because it would take years to develop comraderie, by which time all of the RAs and Analysts will have moved on). I will say, I won't be solving the energy or environmental crises as I would at ICF (well, doing some analysis of potential resolutions, including expansion of nuclear power), however, the financial crisis and potential recession will offer plenty of opportunity to analyze the US economy and offer resolutions just the same.
I can't wait to see what July offers.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Just Words. Just Not Obama's. Part II
Yep, a presidential candidate has plagiarized without any consequence. What do we say when students do the same? What do we say if he becomes president?
Who's the best of three evils?
Ok, so now we have three main candidates for President of the United States, two Democrats and one Republican. But, all three are having some difficulties as of late. So who is the best of the three evils?
Let's review the choices:
Hillary Clinton: Well, the biggest fault is that of former President Bill Clinton. He just blabs too much, and what does that say about the future White House? Plus, Mrs. Clinton wants universal healthcare and to turn the U.S. into a socialist nation.
Barack Obama: He is a plagiarist, plain and simple. If you want to be an inspiring orator and leader, use your own words to gather a constituency and fulfill their wants and needs. If and when the people see who Obama really is, they will realize that he is too inexperienced, too naive, and just like the rest of Washington right now. He hopes the American people will be tricked by his rhetoric. The proof is above.
John McCain: He has faced some concerns from the extreme right. And there has been a concern that he may have had an extra-marital affair and misused his power to influence policy for his supposed mistress. But John McCain's only real fault is his continued defiance of the American people over the war in Iraq. That said, even McCain will draw down the number of troops stationed in Iraq. So, with a strong stance of fiscal conservatism, and a campaign which has, thus far, tried not to alienate independents whilst courting social conservatives (and therein not vowed to fight for religion's place in the U.S. Government), McCain has a good chance of becoming the next President of the United States. That is if we see improvements in Iraq and a realization that McCain can help save the economy, while the Democrats will likely drive us further into recession.
But who knows. It's going to be very interesting.
Let's review the choices:
Hillary Clinton: Well, the biggest fault is that of former President Bill Clinton. He just blabs too much, and what does that say about the future White House? Plus, Mrs. Clinton wants universal healthcare and to turn the U.S. into a socialist nation.
Barack Obama: He is a plagiarist, plain and simple. If you want to be an inspiring orator and leader, use your own words to gather a constituency and fulfill their wants and needs. If and when the people see who Obama really is, they will realize that he is too inexperienced, too naive, and just like the rest of Washington right now. He hopes the American people will be tricked by his rhetoric. The proof is above.
John McCain: He has faced some concerns from the extreme right. And there has been a concern that he may have had an extra-marital affair and misused his power to influence policy for his supposed mistress. But John McCain's only real fault is his continued defiance of the American people over the war in Iraq. That said, even McCain will draw down the number of troops stationed in Iraq. So, with a strong stance of fiscal conservatism, and a campaign which has, thus far, tried not to alienate independents whilst courting social conservatives (and therein not vowed to fight for religion's place in the U.S. Government), McCain has a good chance of becoming the next President of the United States. That is if we see improvements in Iraq and a realization that McCain can help save the economy, while the Democrats will likely drive us further into recession.
But who knows. It's going to be very interesting.
Monday, January 21, 2008
The economy and its naysayers
First, we are facing slower growth as a result of the housing and credit crises. Second, we have, so far, done well to stave off any large negative effects--the Fed has lowered rates and thrown money at the problem. Third, unemployment has changed very little considering the huge importance of housing related jobs and the number lost.
However, our biggest problem may yet be upon us ... INFLATION. We are already seeing soaring food and commodity prices that are bound to affect how we behave, if they haven't already. Now, there is all this talk about the Fed lowering rates and the government offering a stimulus package, yet what consideration has been made to the consequences of said actions? If the Fed lowers rates any further, I fear we will see oil prices soar way above $100 per barrel, and food prices will climb just as well. And considering how dependent we are upon oil for every day items, boy we could be in trouble. What about the stimulus? Well, consider the horrendous fiscal condition we are in today. We spend billions on Iraq, Medicare, and Social Security, leading us to deficits every month. The US has financed its great success on the backs of foreign investors that have been all too eager to gobble up the debt. You have to think, though, that with the credit crisis and falling value of the dollar, there will be a shrinking appetite for US Treasury notes. So, who will finance our stimulus package?
Yeah, that's a tough one. But all of my rant is for naught, because this is an election year, and pandering is all about. Maybe we could use a "fireside" chat from those in the know so that Americans could begin to understand the predicament into which the younger generations, including myself, will have to dig out of in order to survive.
Check out this Fortune article. It certainly gives some credence to my statements about the Fed.
Do we need to lower interest rates? Do you like to pass the buck?
However, our biggest problem may yet be upon us ... INFLATION. We are already seeing soaring food and commodity prices that are bound to affect how we behave, if they haven't already. Now, there is all this talk about the Fed lowering rates and the government offering a stimulus package, yet what consideration has been made to the consequences of said actions? If the Fed lowers rates any further, I fear we will see oil prices soar way above $100 per barrel, and food prices will climb just as well. And considering how dependent we are upon oil for every day items, boy we could be in trouble. What about the stimulus? Well, consider the horrendous fiscal condition we are in today. We spend billions on Iraq, Medicare, and Social Security, leading us to deficits every month. The US has financed its great success on the backs of foreign investors that have been all too eager to gobble up the debt. You have to think, though, that with the credit crisis and falling value of the dollar, there will be a shrinking appetite for US Treasury notes. So, who will finance our stimulus package?
Yeah, that's a tough one. But all of my rant is for naught, because this is an election year, and pandering is all about. Maybe we could use a "fireside" chat from those in the know so that Americans could begin to understand the predicament into which the younger generations, including myself, will have to dig out of in order to survive.
Check out this Fortune article. It certainly gives some credence to my statements about the Fed.
Do we need to lower interest rates? Do you like to pass the buck?
Thursday, January 10, 2008
What we didn't hear tonight
We did not hear anything (except a one second mention, maybe) about the following topics:
-Healthcare
-Higher Education
-Domestic infrastructure
-Environment
-Social Security
Never mind the fact that there was little, if any, detailed plan offered for anything. How can I make a decision for whom to vote without substantive information about that person's presidency and the future?
-Healthcare
-Higher Education
-Domestic infrastructure
-Environment
-Social Security
Never mind the fact that there was little, if any, detailed plan offered for anything. How can I make a decision for whom to vote without substantive information about that person's presidency and the future?
Foreign Policy at the Debate
Thompson: Keep our absolute trust in Musharraff.
Romney: Same as Thompson.
Huckabee: Question Musharraff and the spending of US aid, but keep ultimate trust. Israel is our only ally and we cannot allow them to stand alone.
Paul: Maybe we could have avoided this and last Gulf War if we had left them alone - allow them to make their own decisions. If we want to defend Israel, why sell weapons to the Arab nations?
Giuliani: Pressure Musharraff, but keep trust. Certainly defend Israel to the fullest.
So, the only person to say we need to leave and let live is Ron Paul. And really should we trust Israel and other nations as much as we do (at least with the billions, if not trillions, of dollars sent in aid)? Look, if we are in danger, we would need to get involved. However, military action should not be the first thought. EVER.
Either way, let's FOCUS ON THE PROBLEMS AT HOME NOW.
Romney: Same as Thompson.
Huckabee: Question Musharraff and the spending of US aid, but keep ultimate trust. Israel is our only ally and we cannot allow them to stand alone.
Paul: Maybe we could have avoided this and last Gulf War if we had left them alone - allow them to make their own decisions. If we want to defend Israel, why sell weapons to the Arab nations?
Giuliani: Pressure Musharraff, but keep trust. Certainly defend Israel to the fullest.
So, the only person to say we need to leave and let live is Ron Paul. And really should we trust Israel and other nations as much as we do (at least with the billions, if not trillions, of dollars sent in aid)? Look, if we are in danger, we would need to get involved. However, military action should not be the first thought. EVER.
Either way, let's FOCUS ON THE PROBLEMS AT HOME NOW.
The Queen says "Wii!"
Ok, now, I think I need a little break from the whole ridiculous debate.
Apparently, Queen Elizabeth II got a hold of Prince William's Wii and began playing the Wii Bowling game. The Queen is reported to be pretty good.
Here's an excerpt from c|net:
"Prince William, meanwhile, 'was in fits of laughter,' but allegedly will have a tough time prying the console away from his grandmother. She is, The People notes, an unusually tech-savvy dame. She has reportedly had a cell phone since 2001, a BlackBerry since last year, and listens to an iPod regularly."
Apparently, Queen Elizabeth II got a hold of Prince William's Wii and began playing the Wii Bowling game. The Queen is reported to be pretty good.
Here's an excerpt from c|net:
"Prince William, meanwhile, 'was in fits of laughter,' but allegedly will have a tough time prying the console away from his grandmother. She is, The People notes, an unusually tech-savvy dame. She has reportedly had a cell phone since 2001, a BlackBerry since last year, and listens to an iPod regularly."
Loopy Mitt Romney
WTF? "I think Congressman Paul should not be reading as many of Ahmadinejad's press releases," said Mitt Romney. Come on now. We need to make sure that we do not take this too far so as to provoke an attack.
Debate update (9:30)
A couple of things:
1. Let's stop talking about Reagan and get to some DETAILED and SUBSTANTIVE topics and ideas.
2. John McCain is sounding good so far. And I'm really disappointed in the answer Ron Paul gave to his first question.
Oh, and Mitt Romney keeps dodging questions. Nothing new there, though.
More soon ...
1. Let's stop talking about Reagan and get to some DETAILED and SUBSTANTIVE topics and ideas.
2. John McCain is sounding good so far. And I'm really disappointed in the answer Ron Paul gave to his first question.
Oh, and Mitt Romney keeps dodging questions. Nothing new there, though.
More soon ...
Has the Reagan Revolution ended?
WTF?!? What kind of question is this? How does this help anyone decide for whom they should vote? Fox News, where are the real questions? Come on.
What is obsession with Reagan? Did he even follow his own credo?
More on the debate soon ...
What is obsession with Reagan? Did he even follow his own credo?
More on the debate soon ...
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